Tom K. Wong – Will Comprehensive Immigration Reform Pass? Predicting Legislative Support and Opposition to CIR

[podcast]http://ccis.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Tom_Wong.mp3[/podcast]

Seminar to be held on Monday, April 29th in ERC 115 at 12:00 pm.

Will comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) pass in 2013? The momentum that has been building towards CIR, which accelerated with last November’s presidential election and has since grown even more with the recent introduction of the Senate ‘gang of 8’s” bill, has shown no signs of slowing down. As a matter of politics, the key question is whether there are enough votes in Congress? While there are no crystal balls to tell us how legislators will ultimately vote, the recent history of immigration politics in the U.S. provides sufficient information to make informed predictions, not only about how current members of Congress are likely to vote on the final passage of CIR, but also about how they are likely to vote on the various amendments that will be introduced. By modeling voting behavior on all recent immigration – related legislation – which provides some 6,000 observations in the Senate and over 10,000 observations in the House – I provide estimates for all 535 current members of Congress of the number of yes and no votes on the final passage of CIR, as well as estimates for a number of key amendments that, if passed, could fundamentally alter the bill.

Tom K. Wong is assistant professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego. Professor Wong’s research focuses on the politics of immigration, citizenship, and migrant illegality. As these issues have far-reaching implications, his work also explores the links between immigration, race and ethnicity, and the politics of identity. He is completing a book manuscript, which analyzes the determinants of immigration control policy across twenty-five Western immigrant-receiving democracies. He is also working on a project that creates a typology of the mobility regimes of immigrant-sending countries in order to explain patterns of contemporary international migration, as well as a project on the politics of migrant illegality. His work has been published as a book chapter with Stanford University Press and in the Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies.