The purpose of the CIR 2013 blog is to provide researchers and the public with analyses that speak directly to the question of whether comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) will pass in 2013. These analyses will use social science research methods to answer practical, policy-relevant questions. One of the focuses of the blog will be to identify likely support and opposition to an immigration reform bill, as well amendments that are likely to be introduced, for all 535 voting members of Congress. With that said, all of the standard social science caveats apply. A model is only as good as its assumptions and the quality of data. Moreover, the thickness of the "noise" - especially when the immigration debate reaches a fevered pitch - may be too much to cut through. This does not, however, mean that theoretically informed analysis of current policy-related questions is not possible. Combining the insights gained from these analyses with "on the ground" developments is, perhaps, the optimal way to make sense of the politics of immigration reform in 2013. We thus invite comments and suggestions, particularly from migration scholars and those working on immigration reform.
Please direct comments and inquires to Tom K. Wong by email to tomkwong@ucsd.edu and on Twitter @twong002. We will use #cir2013blog to announce updates.
A Test of the CIR 2013 Blog: The 287(g) Vote
June 07, 2013
By Tom K. Wong, tomkwong@ucsd.edu, @twong002
While we are still far from a vote on final passage of the comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) bill in the Senate, a vote yesterday in the House provides an early test of the models and predictions of the CIR 2013 Blog.
Yesterday, the House voted on an amendment to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) appropriation bill that was introduced by Democratic Representative Jared Polis (CO-2). The amendment was related to the controversial 287(g) program, which promotes local law enforcement cooperation with federal immigration officials. Last week, I was asked to help count votes for and …
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Does Legalization Encourage Unauthorized Immigration?
June 04, 2013
By Hillary Kosnac, hkosnac@ucsd.edu, and Tom K. Wong, tomkwong@ucsd.edu, @twong002
Chances that 2013 will bring a comprehensive immigration reform bill (CIR) that includes a path to citizenship increased recently after the bipartisan Senate “gang of 8’s” bill was voted out of committee (and largely in tact after some 300 amendments were considered). However, the optimism surrounding the bill was quickly tempered as the House Judiciary Committee (HJC) held a hearing in which the legalization of undocumented immigrants and an eventual path to citizenship were sharply questioned.
These questions renewed debate over whether legalization (or even just talk of legalization) leads to more unauthorized …
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Interior Immigration Enforcement by the Numbers
May 22, 2013
By Matt Graham, Bipartisan Policy Center, @matt__graham
Opinions on the extent to which the U.S. enforces immigration laws vary dramatically. Some contend that enforcement is already extremely tough, while others contend that the government fails to enforce immigration law. Rarely are these claims backed by more than one or two statistics.
Based on a long series of Freedom of Information Act requests, the Transactional Record Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) keeps records of immigration enforcement statistics. Their numbers paint a more nuanced picture than either side’s advocates, but leave major holes that available data appear unable to fill.
Removals (Deportations)
The common claim that the Obama …
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Who Are the Opponents of Comprehensive Immigration Reform?
May 15, 2013
By Tom K. Wong, tomkwong@ucsd.edu, @twong002
While members of the Senate Judiciary Committee (SJC) spent yesterday inside the Dirksen Senate Office Building marking up the bipartisan Senate “gang of 8’s” comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) bill, some Republican members of the House of Representatives gathered outside of the Capital Building to declare their opposition to reform efforts. These Representatives have been described as a “veritable all-star team of anti-‘amnesty’ activists.”
While the House has yet to formally take up debate on immigration reform, the group of 8 Representatives who made their opposition known yesterday – particularly with respect to a pathway to citizenship …
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What the GOP has to Gain – and Lose – Among Latinos When it Comes to Immigration Reform
May 13, 2013
By Matt A. Barreto, Latino Decisions
Recently, there have been a series of high profile endorsements for comprehensive immigration reform from the Republican Party. Immediately after the November 2012 election Bobby Jindal made a plea for more civility and less stupidity on the immigration issue. Before too long, it was the Gang of 8 in the U.S. Senate, which included four prominent Republican Senators who introduced their framework for an immigration bill. Then the RNC released a lengthy report calling for stronger outreach to Latinos, starting by passing an immigration reform bill. And now Tea Party favorite, Senator Rand Paul, has changed his position and …
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Will Amendments Using Border Triggers To Create More Obstacles to Legalization Pass?
May 09, 2013
By Tom K. Wong, tomkwong@ucsd.edu, @twong002
Conclusion: Should amendments be introduced and voted on by the full Senate e.g., the Cruz and Sessions amendments that make the initial process of becoming legal contingent on border triggers being met (think triggers first, legalization, and then citizenship instead of legalization first, triggers, and then citizenship), they are likely to fail.
Earlier this week members of the Senate Judiciary Committee (SJC) filed 300 amendments (nearly two-thirds filed by Republicans) to the comprehensive immigration reform bill (S.744) unveiled last month. Today, the SJC will begin debate over these amendments. While we are still a long ways away from the fireworks that …
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Are There Enough Votes in the Senate to Include LGBT Families in Comprehensive Immigration Reform?
April 18, 2013
By Tom K. Wong, tomkwong@ucsd.edu, @twong002
Conclusion: Yes, there is enough support for LGBT inclusion in family reunification in the Senate. Will the inclusion of LGBT families as part of comprehensive immigration reform kill the chances of getting a bill passed in the Senate? This analysis suggests, no. However, the House is the sticking point.
As we comb through the 844-page immigration reform bill released late Tuesday night, one omission has already drawn the attention of several immigrant-rights organizations: the absence of language including LGBT couples in the family-based immigration system.
Under current immigration laws, U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents can sponsor their spouses …
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In Senate Bill, Path to Citizenship May Not Come After Border Triggers
April 17, 2013
By Tom K. Wong, tomkwong@ucsd.edu, @twong002
At close to midnight PST Tuesday, the full text of the Senate comprehensive immigration reform bill was finally released. The full 844-page bill can be found here.
Among the early insights gleaned from the exact language of the bill relates to how the path to citizenship will unfold. While the bill reaffirms that border security triggers are necessary prerequisites for the path to citizenship, it also includes language stating that if making citizenship contingent on border triggers – which leaves immigrants stuck in a “provisional” legal status until these triggers are met – is found to be unconstitutional, …
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Legalization First, then a Path to Citizenship After… Maybe
April 16, 2013
By Tom K. Wong, tomkwong@ucsd.edu, @twong002
The 2013 version of comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) now has a name: the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013. Here is a preliminary summary of what the path to citizenship looks like. The Senate “gang of 8’s” summary outline can be found here and the full text and be found here.
The Senate bill creates a fairly straightforward and direct path to citizenship for DREAMers and for undocumented agricultural workers after border triggers are met. But for the rest of the undocumented population, while the bill creates a path to citizenship, the road there runs …
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Border Security and the Senate “Gang of 8’s” Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill
April 16, 2013
By Tom K. Wong, tomkwong@ucsd.edu, @twong002
The 2013 version of comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) now has a name: the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013. Here is a preliminary summary of the border security aspects of the bill (jump to the bottom for main takeaways). The Senate “gang of 8’s” summary outline can be found here. The link between border security and legalization/path to citizenship will be discussed in more detail in my next post.
The Goal of Border Security: 90% Effectiveness Rate
Unsurprisingly, border security plays a prominent role in the Senate “gang of 8’s” bill. Within 6-months of …
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